The world is watching with concern the spread of the new coronavirus. The uncertainty is being felt around the globe, and it is unsettling on a human level as well as from the perspective of how markets respond.
At wHealth Advisors, we accept the fundamental principle that markets are designed to handle uncertainty, processing information in real-time as it becomes available. We’ve witnessed this volatility over the past 3-4 weeks. Such declines can be distressing to any investor, but they are also a demonstration that the market is functioning as we would expect.
Market declines can occur when investors are forced to reassess expectations for the future. The expansion of the outbreak is causing worry among governments, companies, and individuals about the impact on the global economy. As an example, last month Apple announced that it expected revenue to take a hit from problems making and selling products in China. Airlines are preparing for the toll it will take on travel. Local businesses are worrying how their bottom lines will be impacted from preventive measures such as self-quarantines and social distancing. From the largest companies in the world down to our corner coffee shops, these are just a few examples of how the impact of the coronavirus is being assessed.
The market is clearly responding to new information as it becomes known, but the market is pricing in unknowns, too. As risk increases during a time of heightened uncertainty, so do the returns investors demand for bearing that risk, which pushes prices lower. Our investing approach is based on the principle that prices are set to deliver positive future expected returns for holding risky assets.
We can’t tell you when things will turn or by how much, but our expectation is that bearing today’s risk will be compensated with positive expected returns. That’s been a lesson of past health crises, such as the Ebola and swine-flu outbreaks earlier this century, and of market disruptions, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Additionally, history has shown no reliable way to identify a market peak or bottom. These beliefs argue against making market moves based on fear or speculation, even as difficult and traumatic events transpire.
When it comes to managing your portfolio, it’s prudent to develop (and stick with!) a long-term plan than can be maintained in a variety of conditions. For our clients, we consider a wide range of possible outcomes, both good and bad, when helping to establish an asset allocation and plan. Those preparations include the possibility, even the inevitability, of a downturn. Amid the anxiety that accompanies developments surrounding the coronavirus, decades of financial science and long-term investing principles remain a strong guide.
We send our best to you and yours. Wash your hands, avoid touching your eyes/nose/mouth, and, as always, feel free to contact us at email@example.com.
10/16/2020 Editor Note: Our co-founder, Dennis McNamara, was featured as a financial expert on Dr. Wealth where he weighed in on investing in a post-COVID world. Link to contribution here: https://www.drwealth.com/investing-in-post-covid19-world/