WTF, SVB?! A TL;DR

Silicon Valley Bank

While many were watching the Oscar’s, finance fans were watching the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in America.

Our TL;DR on what happened to SVB:

  • SVB’s primary customer base was the startup community. They were not very profitable for SVB (not big borrowers i.e. few mortgages and business loans).
  • 2020/2021: Low-interest rates + easy money environment allows startups to raise massive capital. SVB receives massive deposits (deposits grew from $74B in June 2020 to $212B in December 2022).
  • SVB customers still didn’t need loans, but SVB wanted to make some money… so they invested in longer-duration bonds with an average yield of 1.60%.
  • Enter 2022: Interest rates begin increasing.
  • Money no longer flowing as it once did, SVB startup customers start feeling pressure. Deposits slow, withdrawals increase.
  • Wednesday (3/8): SVB frees up money in their bond portfolio for customer withdrawals. They sell $21B of those longer-duration bonds for a $1.8B loss.
  • Perception: SVB looks financially shaky.
  • Thursday (3/9): Bank run begins. Customers request $42B of withdrawals.
  • Friday (3/10): SVB stops withdrawals, doesn’t open for business.
  • Sat/Sun (3/11-12): SVB customers with account balances > FDIC insurance limits fear they’ll lose their money.
  • Monday (3/13): US Government expresses that banking is a “system of confidence” and promises to make customers whole.

Who’s at fault?

Some blame the depositors for perpetuating their own bank’s demise.

Some blame regulators for missing SVB’s (now) obvious excessive risks.

Some blame the Fed for hiking rates so quickly.

While all of the above certainly didn’t help, it seems clear that SVB’s managers, supervisors, and leadership bear the burden of responsibility.

They miscalculated their risk.

Namely, they took duration risk on their bonds while also having extremely rate-sensitive, quick-moving, well-informed customers.

Conclusion:

While depositors with balances exceeding FDIC-insured limits seem to be in the clear this go-round, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank should be a cautionary warning to everyone.

A Looming Debt Ceiling

Debt Ceiling

If you follow business/financial news at all, it’s likely that you’re aware of the looming debt ceiling crisis.

In this month’s contribution, we want to peel back the onion and provide a clearer understanding of what it’s all about.

Why is the debt ceiling important?

Also known as the statutory debt limit, the debt ceiling is a legal limit set by the United States Congress on the amount of debt that the federal government can accumulate.

When the government spends more money than it takes in through taxes and other revenue, it borrows money to make up the difference. This borrowed money increases the government’s debt.

When the debt reaches the legal limit set by the debt ceiling, the government is unable to borrow any more money until the debt ceiling is raised by Congress.

Implications of Hitting the Ceiling

Consequences could include:

  • Government shutdown of certain non-essential operations.
  • Default on debt obligations which would likely result in increased volatility (and short-term hit) to the economy and financial markets.
  • US credit rating could get downgraded.
  • Borrowing could get more expensive.
  • Treasury holders of maturing treasuries will be SOL.

History of Debt Ceiling Crises:

This isn’t the first time that political brinksmanship has pushed us towards defaulting on our national debt.

  • 1917: Modern concept of the debt ceiling is established.
  • 1940s-1950s: Debt ceiling was raised during WWII and the post-war period to finance the war effort + support growth.
  •  1970s-Early 2000s: The debt ceiling was raised multiple times with little controversy or public debate.
  • 2011: A political dispute over the debt ceiling resulted in the first-ever U.S. credit downgrade and a stock market sell-off.
  • 2013: Debt ceiling dispute resulted in 16-day government shutdown.
  • 2015/2017/2019: Congress successfully negotiated last-minute compromises that avoided hitting the ceiling.

Different Views on Debt and Deficits: 

While there are certainly many different views on sovereign debt and deficit spending, we wanted to share two views from two authors we’ve recently read:

Stephanie Kelton: Author of The Deficit Myth

Stephanie argues that we should not conflate federal debt and personal (i.e. household) debt.

Kelton, a proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), argues that the government is not like a household in that it does not have to balance its books to avoid default.

Instead, Kelton and other MMT’ers advocate that so long as the federal government has access to real resources (labor/capital), the government can always a) create money and b) pay its debts.

MMT also suggests that the government should be focused on spending to address important social/economic needs and that hyperinflation (i.e. currency depreciation) is a valid, yet ancillary, concern that can be controlled via fiscal discipline.

Kelton and MMT note that as long as a government controls its own currency, it has the ability to use monetary policy to influence the value of its currency.

For example, the government can decrease (or increase) the money supply, which can lead to currency appreciation (or devaluation).

Note that MMT is still a developing theory and its full implications/limitations are still being debated by economists and policymakers.

Ray Dalio: Famed investor and author of Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

Ray Dalio outlines how poorly managed monetary policy can directly influence the fall of empires.

Dalio, who has conventional macroeconomic views and is supportive of market-based solutions, argues that the management of sovereign debt and deficits is critical for effective governance.

Dalio’s principles are focused on promoting economic growth, fostering innovation, and developing effective governance systems that can:

a) minimize the odds of rampant inflation and

b) manage the complex economic and political challenges of the 21st century.

He argues that large debt and deficits can have significant consequences for the economy and the financial markets, particularly when interest rates are rising.

Dalio’s book also provides historical context for the U.S. dollar – the world’s most recent reserve currency – noting that its dominance can lead policymakers to abuse its position by printing too much money, leading to inflation and (eventually) devaluation of the currency.

Overall, Dalio’s views on the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency reflect a nuanced perspective, recognizing the benefits and risks of the current system and the importance of considering both short- and long-term implications of monetary and fiscal policy decisions.

What you can do:

In short: not much.

If the US defaults on its debt payments, there will be very few places to run or hide within the financial markets.

Geopolitically, this could be another strike (at least symbolically) against the idea of US exceptionalism and increase existing power struggles between the US and China.

Here at wHealth Advisors, we’d like to think that our elected officials understand both game theory + the stakes of the game they’re playing.

Perhaps we give them too much credit.

Either way, we’re rationally optimistic that we’ll avoid devolving into a developing country and that a compromise on the debt ceiling will be reached – one that might result in increasing the debt ceiling, decreasing spending, or some mix of both.

SECURE 2.0 Act: If You Don’t Know, Now You Know

SECURE 2.0 Act

On December 23, 2022, Congress passed the SECURE 2.0 Act. This comes roughly three years after the original SECURE Act which was passed in 2019. SECURE 2.0 expands the original.

While there are far too many changes to summarize into one blog, we took a stab at highlighting those that will impact most people’s personal finances.

Increase in the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Age

  • Current Rule: RMDs from your qualified accounts (IRA/401k/403b etc.) needed to be taken in the year you turn 72.
  • SECURE 2.0: Increases the RMD age as follows:
    • For individuals who turn 72 in 2023, RMDs will be pushed back to age 73
    • The RMD age will be 73 through 2032
    • Beginning in 2033, the RMD age will increase to 75

Changes to Workplace Plans

  • RMDs for Roths:
    • Previously, Roth IRA participants were not required to take RMDs, but Roth 401(k) participants were. Under the new plan, beginning in 2024, Roth 401(k) accounts will not be required to take RMDs.
  • Increase in Catch-Up Contributions
    • If you are age 50 or older, you are allowed to make catch-up contributions above the regular contribution limit. For 2023, the catch-up contribution is $7,500 above the regular deferral limit of $22,500.
    • Beginning in 2025, employees aged 60 through 63 are allowed even higher catch-up contributions – the greater of $10,000 or 150% of the regular catch-up contribution amount (indexed for inflation).
  • Mandatory Roth Catch-Up Contributions
    • Beginning in 2024, all catch-up contributions for participants age 50 or older with wages in excess of $145,000 (indexed for inflation) will be Roth.
  • Employer Retirement Plan Contributions can now be Roth
    • Currently, all employer contributions are made on a pre-tax basis
    • Effective immediately, employees will have the option of having company contributions made to a Roth account. If this option is selected, the contribution will be included in the employee’s income in the year of contribution.
  • Matches on Student Debt
    • Beginning in 2024, employers have the option to make matching plan contributions on student loan repayments made by employees.
  • SIMPLE and SEP IRA contributions
    • Previously, SIMPLE and SEP IRA accounts could only be funded with pre-tax dollars.
    • Effective in 2023, SECURE 2.0 will permit each of these plans to accept after-tax Roth contributions.
  • Establishing a Solo 401(k)
    • Currently, a self-employed person must open a new solo 401(k) and make elective deferrals by December 31st of the plan’s tax year.
    • Effective in 2023, SECURE 2.0 now allows sole proprietors to open a new 401 (k) plan up until the due date of their tax return (no extension deadlines).

New Exceptions to the 10% early distribution penalty

  • SECURE 2.0 expands current 10% penalty exceptions to include:
    • Disaster relief
    • Domestic abuse
    • Terminal illness
    • Emergency need

Rollovers from 529 plans to Roth IRAs

  • Beginning in 2024, owners of a 529 account will be able to roll funds into a Roth IRA, with the following conditions:
    • The Roth IRA receiving the funds must be in the name of the beneficiary of the 529 plan (owner and beneficiary cannot be the same).
    • The 529 account must have been open for 15 years.
    • Any contributions to the 529 plan made in the last 5 years are ineligible to be moved to a Roth IRA.
    • The maximum amount that can be transferred from the 529 to the Roth IRA during the individual’s lifetime is $35,000.
    • Maximum rollover is subject to annual Roth contribution limits.

Penalty for missed RMDs is reduced

  • Currently, the penalty for missing an RMD is 50% of the missed amount.
  • With SECURE 2.0, the penalty is reduced to 25% and if corrected in a timely manner, the penalty is reduced to 10%.

Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLAC)

  • QLACs are deferred fixed income vehicles that allow funds in a qualified retirement plan to be converted into an annuity.
  • Currently, you can not use more than 25% of your retirement account balances, or $145,000 (whichever is less), to purchase a QLAC.
  • With SECURE 2.0, the 25% asset limitation is repealed and the dollar limit is increased to $200,000.

Final Thoughts:

As always, be in touch if you have any questions regarding any of these changes.

For a deeper dive on SECURE 2.0 you can see the Senate Finance committee’s full update here.

AI Wrote This Blog

DALL-E

For this month’s contribution, we allowed AI to write this blog.

A few weeks back I learned about the artificial intelligence company known as OpenAI.

DALL-E

What initially brought OpenAI onto my radar was their AI image generator known as DALL-E.

HOW IT WORKS: You type in whatever you have in mind and the AI generator spits out four different image variations.

Some results are obscure, fragmented, and not useful.

Some are surprisingly on point.

The image used in this section is a DALL-E generated image that was populated after searching:

“A Van Gogh illustration of a financial planner”

Voila!

 ChatGPT:

Just the other day I learned about OpenAI’s most recent innovation – ChatGPT. ChatGPT is another AI tool that “optimizes language dialogues for conversation.”

After an initial vetting of the system with obvious questions such as

“is artificial intelligence superior to human intelligence?” 

and

“is it called pork roll or taylor ham?” 

I was satisfied enough with the results and figured it was ready to be deployed for a finance newsletter.

My questions/prompts to ChatGBP in bold followed by ChatGPT’s responses.

Question 1: What are the most devastating, yet avoidable, financial missteps?

The most devastating, yet avoidable, financial missteps can vary depending on an individual’s financial situation and goals. However, some common financial missteps that can have a significant impact on an individual’s financial well-being include:

  1. Not saving for emergencies: Not having an emergency fund can leave individuals vulnerable to financial shocks, such as a job loss or medical expense. Without an emergency fund, individuals may be forced to take on high-interest debt or make other financial decisions that could have long-term consequences.
  2. Not planning for retirement: Not saving enough for retirement or failing to plan for retirement can leave individuals without a stable source of income in their later years. This can make it difficult for individuals to maintain their standard of living and may lead to financial stress and hardship in old age.
  3. Not having adequate insurance: Not having adequate insurance coverage can leave individuals vulnerable to financial losses from unexpected events, such as accidents, illnesses, or natural disasters. Without insurance, individuals may be forced to pay out of pocket for expenses that could be covered by a policy.
  4. Not managing debt: Not managing debt effectively can lead to high-interest payments and financial strain. This can make it difficult for individuals to meet their financial obligations and may impact their credit score and overall financial health.

Overall, avoiding these and other financial missteps can help individuals to manage their finances and avoid financial hardship. It is important to seek professional advice and guidance to help avoid costly financial mistakes.

wHealth Advisors’ Review of Answer: We agree!

Question 2: Should I place assets in international tax havens?

It is generally not recommended to place assets in international tax havens, as doing so can be complex and potentially risky.

Tax havens are countries or territories that offer low or no taxes to individuals and businesses, and are often used by wealthy individuals and corporations to avoid paying taxes in their home countries.

While placing assets in international tax havens may offer some tax benefits, it can also be difficult to manage and may be subject to regulations and reporting requirements.

Additionally, tax havens can be associated with financial crimes and illicit activities, and may not be considered reputable or trustworthy by some investors.

Therefore, it is generally best to consult with a financial planner or advisor before making the decision to place assets in international tax havens.

wHealth Advisors’ Review of Answer: ::PHEW:: We agree!

Question 3: Can you share a positive and negative investment thesis for Amazon (AMZN)?

positive investment thesis for investing in Amazon (AMZN) could include the following:

  1. Amazon is a dominant player in the e-commerce market and has a strong competitive advantage. The company’s scale, customer base, and range of products and services make it a formidable competitor in the online retail space.
  2. Amazon has a diverse range of businesses, including e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising, which provides the company with multiple sources of revenue and helps to mitigate risk.
  3. Amazon has a history of strong financial performance, with consistent revenue and profit growth. The company’s financial strength and stability make it an attractive investment for investors.
  4. Amazon has a strong brand and reputation, which has helped the company to build a loyal customer base and maintain its position as a market leader.
  5. Amazon’s focus on innovation and customer satisfaction has helped the company to stay ahead of the competition and drive growth. The company’s commitment to continuous improvement and expansion into new markets makes it well-positioned for future growth.

Overall, Amazon’s strong market position, diverse business portfolio, and track record of financial success make it a compelling investment opportunity for investors.

A negative investment thesis for Amazon (AMZN) could include the following:

  1. Amazon faces intense competition from other e-commerce companies, such as Walmart and Alibaba, which could erode the company’s market share and profitability.
  2. Amazon’s business model relies heavily on low prices and thin profit margins, which could make the company vulnerable to changes in the economic environment or shifts in consumer behavior.
  3. Amazon’s expansion into new markets and industries, such as healthcare and groceries, may not be successful and could result in significant losses for the company.
  4. Amazon’s reliance on third-party sellers and fulfillment centers has raised concerns about the company’s ability to maintain quality control and protect customer data. This could damage the company’s reputation and impact its financial performance.
  5. Amazon’s valuation is high relative to its peers and historical averages, which could make the stock overvalued and potentially vulnerable to a decline in price.

Overall, Amazon faces a number of potential risks that could impact its financial performance and make it a less attractive investment for some investors.

wHealth Advisors’ Review of Answer: …Wow…

Question 4: How will AI disrupt individuals’ ability to earn money?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to disrupt individuals’ ability to earn money in a number of ways. Some of the potential ways that AI could impact individuals’ ability to earn money include:

  1. Automation of jobs: As AI technologies advance, they may be able to perform many tasks that are currently done by human workers, such as data entry, customer service, and assembly line work. This could result in the loss of jobs for human workers and make it more difficult for them to find employment and earn income.
  2. Increased competition: As AI technologies become more advanced, they may be able to perform tasks that were previously considered too complex or time-consuming for machines to handle. This could lead to increased competition for jobs that require higher-level skills, such as problem-solving and critical thinking, making it more difficult for human workers to find and retain high-paying jobs.
  3. Changes in the job market: The use of AI technologies may also lead to changes in the job market, with the creation of new types of jobs that require skills in AI and related technologies. This could create new opportunities for workers with the right skills and education, but it could also make it more difficult for workers without those skills to find and maintain employment.

Overall, AI has the potential to disrupt individuals’ ability to earn money by automating jobs, increasing competition, and changing the job market. It is important for individuals to stay informed about developments in AI and related technologies and to adapt their skills and education to prepare for these changes.

wHealth Advisors’ Review of Answer: We appreciate AI’s candor!

Start adapting those skills because the future is now.

Other fun/helpful AI that we stumbled upon in the making of this newsletter:

  • Character.aiWant to have a discussion with an AI version of Socrates? Albert Einstein? Elon Musk? Or, perhaps you need to discuss things with an AI dating coach, life coach, or psychologist? Take your pick at Character.ai.
  • Adept.ai: According to TechCrunch, “Adept aims to build AI that can automate any software process.” What’s that mean? Maybe you need to add a new client to your CRM with notes… or lookup a new home that meets certain criteria… or get profit margin details from a Google Sheet… just ask Adept to do it.Check out the videos on the “about” section of the website. NOTE: You can’t use this product yet but there’s a waitlist to join if interested.
  • Lensa: An all-in-one image editing app that renders selfies into artwork. NOTE: The app is free to download, and there’s a free trial, but in general the service costs $3.99 for 50 images.

Preparing Children for their Financial Future

Preparing children for their financial future is a key concern of many parents. A a follow-up to last month’s contribution focused on financial considerations for those between 15-24 years old, we wanted to continue that theme but focusing on what parents can do for their children who are even younger.

Paying Allowance:

Determining How Much

Before determining how much to pay, it’s worth coming up with a plan for how the money is earned in order to manage your child’s expectations.

While using a paid chore system can teach kids responsibility and the value of earning money from doing work (i.e. $7 for mowing the lawn), some families may view chores as a communal effort that are shared among all members of the household.

Either way, when it comes to determining how much weekly allowance to pay, it’s really up to you. However, it’s not uncommon to pay somewhere in the range of $1-$2 for each year of the child’s age. So, by this measure, a 12-year-old would get an allowance ranging somewhere between $12 to $24 per week. For reference, according to RoosterMoney, the average weekly allowance that parents pay is $19.30.

For a teenager, if encouraging them to buy their own clothes and pay for most of their own activities, a weekly allowance could certainly be in the range of $25 per week or more.

Be consistent

Regardless of whether allowance is tied to chores or not, many experts recommend making at least a portion of a child’s allowance fixed (regardless of their chore completion or behavior) and paying it consistently on the same set date – whether weekly, biweekly, or monthly.

Avoid the temptation of caving in and paying allowance early as allowance is supposed to teach kids good saving/spending habits. These lessons are hard but better to learn when young than to become a future payday loan borrower!

Help them set goals

As parents, we play a major role in helping our children learn self-control and the value of delayed gratification (some may be familiar with the Stanford Marshmallow Test).

By giving our children more agency in the spending/saving of their money they can learn the value of skipping short-term wants in exchange for longer-term goals.

One way to structure this could be to require kids to put a portion of their allowance into long-term savings/goals, a portion toward a charity/cause they care about, and to keep the remaining available for immediate spending.

Banking + debit cards

Opening a high yield savings account for your child’s “longer-term savings” – and/or setting up a separate savings account for any specific goals they might have – is a great way to introduce them to online banking and showing them the interest (however miniscule) that accumulates.

Additionally, some parents preparing their children for their financial future will appreciate the prepaid debit cards and online platforms that help make managing allowances a bit easier. Some options include GreenlightCopper, and GoHenry.

Protecting their identity/credit:

Freeze your child’s credit

While preparing your children for their financial future, ensure that their finances don’t get derailed by no fault of their own. By freezing your child’s credit you prevent criminals from opening lines of credit using your child’s personal data (which can be a maddingly laborious process to unwind). Each of the three credit bureaus will require copies of the following:

  • Parent’s driver’s license / government ID
  • Parent’s birth certificate
  • Parent’s Social Security card
  • Child’s birth certificate
  • Child’s Social Security card
  • A utility bill or bank insurance statement with parent’s name/address on it

Note that all three credit bureaus have different forms to process credit freezes for a minor. Equifax has this form, TransUnion has this form, and Experian has this online form that prints to PDF (select “add or remove a security freeze for a minor”).

Protect Social Security numbers

Whenever prompted to provide your child’s SSN, leave this field blank unless you are explicitly required to provide it and understand a) why it’s necessary and b) how it will be protected.

Pay attention to mail

Credit preapproval offers in your child’s name are always worth investigating. Receiving any correspondence from a collection agency addressed to your child is a major red flag.

Keep your child’s documents locked away

Important documents like birth certificates and Social Security cards should be stored in a home fireproof safe – never in your purse, wallet, or car.

Monitor health insurance claim information

A health insurance claim that lists your child’s name but never actually happened can indicate that your child’s personal information has been used to access health insurance benefits.

Investing

For Education: 529 Accounts

When it comes to your children’s education saving, 529s are a reliable, tax-advantaged saving vehicles. From a tax standpoint, 529s grow tax-deferred and withdrawals are tax-free so long as they’re used for qualified education expenses.

While originally limited to post-secondary education costs, you can now take tax-free withdrawals from 529s to pay for apprenticeship programs as well as up to $10,000 per year of K-12 private education.

When it comes to choosing a 529 plan, it’s good to know whether your state offers a state tax deduction for 529 contributions. If so, there may be benefits to using one of your state’s designated 529 plans. However, if your state does not offer a tax deduction for 529 contributions, feel free to use any 529 plan but consider plans like My529 that are affordable and provide access to low-fee, quality index funds (both Vanguard and Dimensional Funds).

For Long-term Growth: UTMAs/UGMAs and Roth IRAs

UTMAs/UGMAs:

These are custodial brokerage accounts that parents can set up for their minor children. Deciding which to open can depend on the state you live in but both are great accounts to begin improving your child’s financial/investment literacy while also saving and investing for the future. Parents commonly use these accounts to give their children a head start in saving for a wedding, a down payment on their first home, or to just get a base of money to begin compounding for the long-term.

Parents should be aware that while they may be the ones funding these accounts, the transfers into the accounts are irrevocable – that is, the money becomes official property of the minor once transferred-in. Upon the minor turning 18 (or 21 in some states), they will reach the age of majority and be able to use the funds at their discretion.

One planning opportunity for parents with low basis stock positions is to “gift” the low basis shares to the minor child’s UTMA/UGMA. In doing this – and beware of the many variables that can change the mechanics of this [CONSULT WITH YOUR TAX ADVISOR] there can be opportunities to sell the position in the minor’s account, thus recognizing the gain at the minor’s lower/nonexistent capital gains rate.

Roth IRAs:

For children that have earned income but are still in the lowest tax brackets, contributing to a Roth IRA sets the table for potentially decades of tax-free compounding.

For parents that are also business owners, it may behoove them to put children on payroll, assuming there is a real business need and that the pay is commensurate with the work/time.

Parents that can hire their children are able to a) lower their reported income (thereby reducing self-employment/income taxes) and b) provide the child with “earned income” which can go towards their annual Roth IRA contribution. Again – consult with your tax advisor!

DISCLAIMER TO PARENTS Get Your Own Sh*t In Order, FIRST!

As much as we love our children, we mustn’t forget to put our own oxygen masks on first.

Emergency Fund

Having a child naturally increases the odds of having some unplanned expenses. Additionally, the mere fact that you’re now financially responsible for someone beyond yourself raises the stakes for “rainy day” planning. As such, having an emergency war chest to keep things running smoothly in the event of job loss, illness, or a large unexpected expense is crucial.

Generally, when it comes to emergency funds, we suggest keeping three to six months’ worth of essential living expenses readily available in a high yield savings account (Marcus, AMEX, and CapitalOne all offer competitive APYs).

Education Planning vs. Retirement

If you’re torn on whether to invest for your child’s college or your own retirement, more often than not: choose retirement. Children can borrow money to get a college education, you cannot borrow to fund your retirement.

We all want to provide our children with the best education money can buy, but be wary of placing too much investment in this area if it means you’ll be neglecting your own future (in which case you’ll be the financial burden to them later on!).

With college education costs continuing to outpace inflation, it behooves nearly all parents to consider meeting with a college planning expert to navigate the nuances so that parents (and their children!) can get the most for their money.

Insurance:

Health Insurance: 

Be aware of your plan’s family deductibles (especially if in a high deductible health plan [HDHP]) so that hospital bills don’t leave you in a financial bind.

Life Insurance: 

Having a sufficient amount of term life insurance can go a long way in helping a family stay afloat if one parent dies while the children are still too young to provide for themselves. Life insurance death benefits are tax-free and can create breathing room for a widow(er) to figure out the best next steps for the family. This could include taking unpaid time away from work, paying off the mortgage, funding the kids’ tuition/childcare, or any other obligation that the deceased spouse can no longer help with.

Disability Insurance:

While parents may have employer-provided disability insurance, we recommend making sure that it’s sufficient coverage to pay for essential expenses like your mortgage, debt, childcare, and household expenses. Separately, it is always worth considering getting a private/individual policy to supplement any existing coverage that is customized to your needs and “portable” should you leave your current employer. Keep in mind that some policies may pay benefits only if you can’t perform any work at all. If you have a high paying job that requires specific skills, consider an “own occupation” policy.

Maximize Available Tax Credits:

Unlike the Child Tax Credit (CTC) which is picked up on nearly all tax planning software, the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit is one that is regularly missed as it requires parents to report care expenses. Most parents that pay for childcare while working (or looking for work) can claim this credit.

To qualify, children must be under the age of 13 and parents must report expenses paid for babysitting, daycare, preschool, summer camps, and even nannying arrangements.

Families are eligible to receive up to $8,000 in credits depending on the number of children and household adjusted gross income (AGI). Be aware, parents are required to provide their caregiver’s name, tax identification information (i.e. Tax ID or SSN), and the amount of expenses.

Estate Planning

When it comes to drafting a will, one of the most important parts is selecting who you would like to serve as guardian to your children. Have a conversation with an attorney to make sure other parts of your estate plan are in order (powers of attorney for financial and health care decisions) and be sure to keep beneficiary designations up to date (note: beneficiary designations supersede your will!). Your attorney can help you determine if setting up a trust makes sense for your situation and goals.

Final Thoughts

The last thing we will ever attempt to do is tell someone how to raise their children. We know our lane and parenting advice is not it. Ultimately, though, all parents want the best for their children – kids that are confident, kind, and successful.

When it comes to parenting – regardless of the topic – a common refrain suggests that it’s most important to model the behavior you want your child to exhibit. Preparing children for their financial future begins with you, the parent. By getting your own financial affairs in order, you can speak more confidently/transparently about household finances and raise financially intelligent children that feel empowered to take on the world.

With the cost of raising a child from 0-18 continuing to climb (now up to over $300k), the fewer missteps the better.

Preparing Young Adults for their Financial Future

With back-to-school right around the corner, we wanted to use this blog to address preparing young adults for their financial future. particularly those between the ages of 15-24. While some of these topics are especially important for young people, many are relevant for all ages.

Budgeting

There is a common misconception that “budgeting” is restrictive – that one must eliminate life’s pleasures – trading a night out with friends for a single serving of Cup Noodles ramen at home. Not so.

Rather, having a budget simply means that you’re thinking about money decisions before making them. The idea is to become more intentional with your spending so that you’re not forced to stay home, alone, eating Cup Noodles simply due to short-sighted planning.

So, in the same way that a recent college entrant has to learn about balancing their classes, homework, study hours, extracurriculars, and social life, they also need to learn how to prioritize their financial wants vs. needs.

Not having experience managing month-to-month living expenses is no excuse for unconsciously blowing through funds – whether their own funds, loaned funds, or the supplemental money provided by the bank of mom & dad.

Budget Practice for Young People

One way for our children to manage their wants vs. needs as it relates to finances is to give them a sense of agency and personal responsibility in how funds are spent.

High Schoolers

When it comes to back-to-school shopping, consider giving your high schooler a budget to spend on new clothes, shoes, backpacks, and other discretionary items they may need. If you’re feeling generous you can even let them know that whatever they don’t spend, they can keep.

“Want those new Jordan’s? Have at it! But don’t complain when you’re remaining funds only afford you a pair of shorts and a t-shirt!”

Those $60 Vans almost immediately begin looking more appealing.

College-aged Kids

For parents providing their college-aged kids with supplemental funds, consider setting parameters around monthly living expenses.

Always re-funding their checking account and/or paying off the credit card bill in full each month is unlikely to instill personal responsibility as it relates to finances.

Instead, consider setting a monthly amount that you’ll contribute to their debit account. If you’re child exceeds that and there’s still five days left in the month they’ll either learn to love those Cup Noodles or they’ll adapt… or they’ll get frustrated and tell you you’re a bad parent.

In any case – they’re learning through living.

Big Ticket Expenses

Inevitably, there will be cases when your child asks for your support for bigger ticket expenses.

Examples: a spring break trip, studying abroad, or purchasing a car.

Does your child need to fund any one of these fully through their summer job, work-study, or internship? As parents, that’s your call. It’s likely that many parents reading this either self-funded these things or skipped out on them because both parental support and personal funds were lacking.

However, for parents that are lending financial support to children, getting your child to contribute towards the larger goal – perhaps a defined percentage or an agreed upon amount – is a great way for them to have skin in the game.

Developing a Good Credit History

Building good credit history is an important task. In an increasingly cashless society, creating a track record that shows you are a reliable borrower is a major step in the right direction towards financial independence. The sooner one begins, the better.

Secured Credit Cards

Getting a credit card can be a challenge for those without a credit history. This is where secured credit cards come in. Children over the age of 18 can qualify, regardless of income.

REASON: A secured credit card requires putting down a security deposit (think: collateral) that acts as the card’s credit limit. It’s kind of like your little one riding with training wheels again… but it builds their credit history.

We found Bankrate’s list of secured credit cards helpful to sort through the variety of options.

Do note that secured credit cards are not the only way for a young person to get access to a card that builds their credit history – they can also be added as an authorized user on a family member’s credit card.

Establishing good credit at a young age can open up opportunities down the road and credit scores can impact all of the following:

  •  Leasing an apartment
  • Setting up utilities
  • Applying for a job
  • Buying or leasing a car
  • Purchasing a cell phone plan
  • Interest rates for credit cards and various loans

Additionally – there are some basic rules of thumb to ensure that credit is being used appropriately and improving a new borrower’s credit score:

  • Set up automatic payments (to ensure no missed payments)
  • Keep credit utilization below 30% credit utilization (i.e. staying below 30% of total credit limit)
  • Pay off your balances in full when due (i.e. not paying off immediately after each transaction)
  • Make student loan payments on time

DID YOU KNOW: Your three free credit reports can be accessed directly from annualcreditreport.com – the only source for free credit reports as authorized by Federal law.

Other important financial know-hows for young adults:

Knowing How a Bank Account Works

Do they understand:

  • minimum balance requirements?
  • overdraft and service fees and how to avoid them?
  • how long it can take to transfer funds between different accounts and institutions?

Being Smart About Cybersecurity

Many students use shared Wi-Fi networks that are not secure – are they aware of this?
Consider investing in a Virtual Private Network (VPN) to establish a secure, encrypted connection between your child’s computer and the internet.

Renting Textbooks

No need to buy new if you can rent or buy used.

Student Loans & Delayed Gratification

For those that take out student loans, it’s not uncommon to have some extra funds available after tuition/room/board fees are paid.

No – these funds are not fun money. Student loan borrowers should be reminded that the longer these surplus loan funds can be stretched, the less they’ll need to fork over for monthly repayment when they begin working.

Long-term Investing

Children with on-the-books earned income are also likely to be in a low (or zero %) tax bracket. This presents a great opportunity to open and fund the golden egg of their future financial plan: a Roth IRA.

Final Thoughts:

Discussing household finances is, unfortunately, a taboo subject in many families. However, the more proactive we can be in preparing young adults for their financial future the better we can equip them with information to help them avoid common pitfalls and succeed.

So – please – think about those young adults (or soon-to-be young adults) in your life and share what you can. Each of us stands on the shoulders of those before us. Even if you don’t feel that your lived experience is worth sharing, it’s highly likely that a young person could glean gems of wisdom from both your financial successes and your defeats.

Parents: Also be aware of recent FAFSA updates and the pros and cons of cosigning a student loan.

CLIENTS: We are offering an on-demand financial literacy course that your children have access to for FREE. This is not only a great educational opportunity for them, but also something they can leverage on their resume or school application.

Please be in touch if this might be of interest.

The Dreaded “R” Word

The Dreaded "R" Word

Probably like you, we’re hearing the dreaded “R” word – recession – being referenced quite a bit lately.

In fact, in the month of June, Google Trends – which analyzes the popularity of Google Search across various regions and languages – indicated that searches for “recession” have officially surpassed those for “inflation.”

What’s causing the dim outlook?

In simplest terms: Uncertainty.

Most of that uncertainty lands squarely around the recently overtaken Google Search favorite: inflation.

At the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell – the man with quite possibly the most unenviable job in America right now – said:

“I think we now understand better how little we understand about inflation” and that there is “no guarantee the central bank can tame runaway inflation without hurting the job market.

Not the most reassuring words.

Inflation Blame

A succinct summary of inflation contributors (credit to Barry Ritholtz):

  1. Covid-19
  2. Congress
  3. President Biden CARES Act 3
  4. President Trump CARES Act 2
  5. Consumers (who overspent without regard to cost)
  6. Consumers (shift to goods)
  7. Russian invasion of Ukraine
  8. Just In Time Delivery (supply chain)
  9. Fed/Monetary Policy
  10. Wages/Unemployment Insurance
  11. Home Shortages
  12. Semiconductors/Automobiles
  13. Corporate Profit Seeking
  14. Tax Cuts (2017) / Infrastructure (2022)
  15. Crypto

Inflation: The Path Forward

Between a rock and a hard place, the Fed has made clear that it will prioritize reining in inflation.

To do this, the Fed will continue tightening monetary policy. Quantitative easing (QE discussed more in previous contribution) has been discontinued and additional interest rate increases are planned.

The question then becomes – as Powell alluded to in Sintra – whether the Fed can achieve this without further upending the broader economy.

So, does all this point towards the inevitability of a recession?

Let’s start with the basics.

What is a Recession?

Recessions are an unavoidable contraction in a nation’s economy, a natural part of the business cycle.

While many consider two consecutive quarters of declining GDP to be a recession, the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – the official arbiter of recessions – defines it slightly different.

According to NBER, “a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months” that manifests itself in the data tied to “industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Essentially three criteria that must be met to officially qualify as a recession: depth, diffusion, and duration.

What causes a recession?

Recessions can be set off in a variety of ways. Some causes include:

  • Sudden economic shocks (1973 OPEC energy crisis)
  • Bursting of asset/debt bubbles (‘01 dot-com bubble, ’08 subprime mortgage crisis)
  • Too much inflation/deflation (US inflation in ‘70s, Japan deflation in ‘90s)

Is another recession inevitable?

It’s pretty much guaranteed, yes.

Since 1854 (the first year we have official economic data), the United States has experienced 35 recessions which have occurred, on average, nearly every 4-5 years.

A chart outlining some of these recessions (and their respective GDP contractions and durations) was featured in a blog post of ours from 2019 (also a timely read considering Le Tour just started!):

The Next Recession and What We Can Learn from the Tour de France.

Why do we care about recessions?

Recessions have real world consequences:

  • Unemployment can rise: Recessions can lead to less spending/consumption which can result in layoffs, pay/benefit cuts, and heightened job insecurity. For job seekers, recessions can be a challenging time because there is less hiring and employees will typically have less leverage in pay negotiations.
  • Businesses can fail: The same reduction in spending/consumption that leads to unemployment can also directly lead to businesses being forced into bankruptcy.
  • Retirement plans can be upset: The retirement landscape is already full of landmines for the average American. Sprinkle in a recession + inflation and you have an environment that will be unforgiving to overspending/mistakes. Those that retain jobs may decide to stick around longer to weather the storm.
  • Borrowing can get more difficult: As the broader economy slows down, or backtracks into recession territory, it’s not uncommon for lenders to tighten their standards for mortgages, vehicle financing, and other types of loans.

Is the United States heading for a recession?

It’s all opinion and speculation until it’s here. Poll various economists, strategists, and bankers and you will get inconsistent answers.

Even better yet – and perhaps just as reliable – ask your neighbor what they think. Consumer sentiment alone speaks volumes.

While recessions are hard to predict, leading indicators are pointing to the U.S. inching closer to one:

Room for optimism?

The consumer makes up 70% of the economy and there is an argument that, based on US household holdings of cash and cash equivalents, that the US consumer has never been more prepared for a slowdown:

US Household Holdings of Cash & Cash Equivalents

And no, the cash is not necessarily being hoarded by just the wealthiest households. Those in the bottom half are holding 45% more cash than from two years earlier.

Growth in total household wealth also provides a glimmer of hope.

Between Q4 2019 and the end of Q1 2022, total household wealth increased from $109.9T to $141.1 T – an increase of nearly 30%. All this while the ratio of household debt to disposable income dropped to the lowest levels of anytime seen between 1980-2020.

Air flight – another indicator of consumer sentiment measured by TSA checkpoints – is also seeing it’s highest levels of passengers since the start of the pandemic. This is a great sign when considering that business travel is still down 30%.

Will this continue? Anyone’s guess. But at the moment the average US consumer has more cash, less debt, and more overall wealth than they’ve ever experienced.

Closing Thoughts:

The next time you hear the dreaded “R” word referenced, consider taking a page out of the Stoics’ playbook: prioritize the things within our control, and ignore the rest.

We have no way of knowing, or control over, when the economy will rebound, when inflation will subside, or when the market will be primed to recover it’s losses.

However, the things we can control include:

Financial:

  • Spending habits (and potentially adjusting in light of inflation)
  • Making strategic tax-planning decisions
  • Paying down high interest debts
  • Continuing to invest in the market.

Life:

  • What we consume (food, media)
  • Our mental and physical fitness
  • Who we choose to spend time with
  • The amount of sleep we get
  • Our body language and breath
  • Our opinions, attitudes, aspirations, dreams, desires, and goals.
  • The number of times we smile, say “thank you,” or express gratitude for all we do have today
  • Our level of honesty with self and others

In the words of Epictetus, “He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has.”

The Changing Longevity Landscape

die young late

Living beyond age 100 may become commonplace.

Now, before I go down this rabbit hole, a disclaimer: Extending lifespan beyond known biological bounds is still sci-fi stuff.

However, also consider modern innovations that were also once considered sci-fi:

  • Airflight (planes/jets/helicopters/jetpacks)
  • Space travel
  • Landing on the moon
  • The International Space Station
  • Driverless cars
  • Mobile phones
  • The internet
  • Lab-grown meat
  • Machine learning
  • Video calls
  • 3D printing
  • Smart homes
  • Underwater exploration
  • Online metaverse
  • Wearable tech
  • DNA sequencing

So with an open mind, let’s dive in.

Aging = A Disease

Research focused on the root causes of human mortality is increasingly pointing towards one common denominator: aging.

Aging? As the cause of mortality? Yes, bear with me.

At it’s most basic level, aging is nothing more than an accumulation of damage: breakages in the machinery of your cells combined with build ups of metabolic waste which lead to the failure of biological systems. With the exception of acute accidents, the most common causes of death (heart disease, cancer, neurological disease/degeneration) all increase as we age.

On June 18, 2018, the World Health Organization even added a new disease code which every country in the world is encouraged to use. The code was MG2A: old age.

Aging From 30,000 Feet:
  • Lifestyle and genetics influence cellular health.
  • Cellular health determines our rate of aging.
  • The process of aging leads to biological misfires, cellular breakdown, and disease/death.

Two Theories of Aging:

While slowing down the process of aging could help in forestalling disease, it’s still unclear to what degree aging can be slowed, paused, or reversed.

As it stands now, there are two basic theories surrounding aging/lifespan:

  1. Biological Limit on Life: According to this theory, humans (along with all other species) have a natural limit to their lifespans that cannot be exceeded. Using mathematical modeling, researchers from the journal Nature Communications predict that after 120 to 150 years of age the human body loses its ability to recover from illness and injury.
  2. Longevity Escape Velocity: Also known as age escape velocity and actuarial escape velocity, this is the situation in which technology extends a person’s life expectancy at a faster rate than they are aging. In other words, the potential for immortality. Some gerontologists believe that the odds of LEV are as high as 50% and that we could learn the answer within the next 15 years.

Regardless of which theory ultimately ends up proving correct, it is quite likely that lifespans will continue to be extended (perhaps dramatically) beyond the averages of today. According to the CDC, the average life expectancy for a female in the US is 80.5, for males it is 75.1.

Odds of living to 100 (with vitality)

Simply making it to the triple digit milestone is currently out of reach for many. Per data from the Social Security Administration, for a married couple where both spouses are 65 years old, there is a 8.7% chance that at least one member of the couple will live to 100.

Now, while the US does have the highest number of centenarians globally (approx. 97,000 people, or 0.03% of the US population), they are a rare bunch.

Getting to 115 is currently a 1-in-100-million proposition. And reaching 130 is a mathematical improbability of the highest order. At least it is right now.

However, for those able to invest in their health and maintain physical and cognitive function over these next 10-15 years, the future is looking bright.

According to Dr. David Sinclair, author of Lifespan and co-director for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard Medical School, “if even a few of the therapies and treatments that are most promising come to fruition, it is not an unreasonable expectation for anyone who is alive and healthy today to reach 100 in good health—active and engaged at levels we’d expect of healthy 50-year-olds today.”

The Science

You may have heard the following:

Genetics load the gun, but lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Studies of family genealogies and identical twins place the genetic influences on longevity at between 10% and 25% which, by any estimation, is surprisingly low. Conversely, your lifestyle accounts for 75%-90%.

In other words: Our DNA is not our destiny, lifestyle plays an outsized role.

With recent advancements in both technology and medicine, our longevity rates may be increasing faster than many realize.

Perhaps the greatest leap forward occurred in 2012 when Shinya Yamanaka discovered what he referred to as the “elixir of life.”

And no, the “elixir” was not a trendy food or supplement. It was the discovery of a process called “reprogramming” – that is, in a crude oversimplified sense: using genome-editing CRIPR technology to revert mature cells into younger cells.

This discovery would earn Yamanaka the Nobel Prize of Medicine.

Following Yamanaka’s discovery, we’ve entered a period of exponential medicine: genome sequencing, RNA transcriptomics, Wnt pathway modifiers, vaccines, liquid biopsies, CAR-T cells, gene therapy, exosomes, and stem cells are just a sampling of the technologies (many of which the world’s billionaires are fast-tracking).

The ability to reprogram cells along with these other interventions could prove revolutionary in delaying biological decline.

For instance, when it comes to cancer, the body is always producing cancer it’s just that our immune system zaps the cancer 99% of the time. Early stage cancers, those in stage 1 and stage 2, are highly curable. It’s when a cancer metastasizes beyond those initial stages that the fight typically becomes more difficult.

In the case of cancer, as opposed to being reactive to the symptoms before it’s too late, there is now proactive screening for 60+ different cancers to catch them in the earlier, more treatable stages.

Proactive care, as opposed to reactive treatment, is the future of healthcare.

Lifespan vs. Healthspan

In a previous blog on the Centenarian Olympics, we discussed the idea of “backcasting” – or reverse engineering – the tasks that you would need to be able to complete at age 100 to maintain independence and how you could begin training for them today. The reason for this is that, for many of us, the goal is not to simply increase the quantity of years lived. Instead, it’s to increase the quality of our years by decreasing the number of years nursing disease.

Between 1950 and 2020 the world population swelled from 2.9B people to 7.8B people. During that same window of time, average (global) life expectancy rose 26 years, from 47 to 73 years of age. While life expectancy has risen, maintaining health, function, and overall quality of life has lagged.

Unlike the average lifespan, which is now 79.3 years in the US, the average healthspan (i.e. period of one’s life that one is healthy) is only 63.1 years old. In other words, roughly 1/5 of an individual’s life is now spent managing end of life morbidity.

With new medical advancements and lifestyle improvements it’s looking more and more likely that there are solutions to close the gap between the quantity of your years (lifespan) and the quality of them (healthspan).

Financial Planning & Playing the Long Game

At wHealth Advisors, we view the traditional definition of “wealth” – your investments, salary, net worth etc. – as a bit limiting and one dimensional. Like the term “success”, true “wealth”… ehmm wHealth… is more nuanced, nebulous, and unique to each of us. What is optimal for me may not be optimal for you.

Therefore, the wHealthy person is the one with a uniquely optimized balance of financial independence, health (mental/physical/emotional/spiritual), rest, and social connection. They are also likely to have sufficient degree of autonomy and purpose in their professional and/or personal life.

All the returns in life – whether in finances, health, knowledge, or relationships – are the product of good decisions being compounded over long periods. Therefore, improving our overall wHealth is not typically something we can change dramatically overnight, it’s incremental.

Final Thoughts

As financial planners, we feel immense responsibility – and gratitude – in applying our technical expertise to empower our clients to be the people, and live the lives, they’ve always dreamed of.

The maxim of “health is wealth” is all too cliché and oftentimes not met with action. Like with finances as is the case with health – the best time to have started investing in it was 10 years ago… the second best time is today.

So, assuming that you could live with vitality to (or beyond!) age 100 – how might that change the way you make decisions today?

Would you make any changes to your current lifestyle?

Would you invest more into (or divest from) certain relationships?

Would you dedicate more attention to any areas of your overall health (mental, physical, emotional, spiritual etc.)?

Would you make different career decisions/transitions?

Would you invest more time, energy, and intention into closing the gap between who you are today and the best version of yourself?

Let us know so we can begin planning for that future today!

The Federal Reserve’s Toolkit + Market Hangover

The Federal Reserve’s toolkit consist of two blunt tools: the fed funds rate + quantitative easing. In this month’s contribution we’ll discuss the potential short and long-tail impacts of both.

On Wednesday (5/4/2022), in an effort to bring down rising inflation without disrupting economic activity, the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 50 basis points (.50%).

Like downing a Pedialyte following a three-day bender, the markets initially reacted positively. However, nausea quickly set in and the previous day gains were quickly reversed. By the end of the following trading day, ol’ S&P 500 and it’s tech pal Nasdaq were both sitting on the toilet holding trashcans, down 3.6% and 5% respectively. The single worst day for the market since June 2020.

In fact, last week marked the fifth consecutive weekly decline in the S&P 500, it’s longest losing streak since June 2011.

April CPI data released the following Wednesday (5/11/2022) showed another upward inflation surprise (above analyst expectations) and suggests that the deceleration is going to be painstakingly slow.

What’s going on?

In short: A lot.

  • Covid Supply & Demand Constraints: Domestically, although things are beginning to look better, the dust has still not settled from the logjams created by Covid. Internationally, China’s most recent bout of Covid-19 lockdowns has reduced the supply of Chinese exports and dampened demand for imports.
  • Oil Shock: Sanctions against Russia are forcing countries reliant on Russian oil to explore other energy suppliers/solutions which has driven up global oil prices.
  • Inflation: No matter how transitory the Fed believes inflation may be, they’re no longer sitting around and waiting for the situation to rectify itself. They are now deploying their limited arsenal of blunt tools to bring this down.

This last point re: inflation/Fed tools deserves some extra attention.

Federal Reserve: The Bartender

As already mentioned, the primary tools in the Federal Reserve’s toolkit are:

  1. controlling the federal funds rates (which impacts interest rates)
  2. quantitative easing (QE) which introduces new money into the money supply.

In another alcohol analogy, imagine the Fed as our bartender.

Interest rates:

If the bartender wanted to incentivize drinking (helllllllo happy hour!), the bartender could lower the prices which might increase consumption. The drink servers (banks) would let all the patrons (individuals/investors etc.) know that drink prices are down – get ‘em while you can! This is, in effect, what lowering the fed funds rate does for our economy – it lowers the cost of borrowing and incentivizes investment.

Conversely, perhaps the party is really hoppin’ and there’s a line around the corner to get in, the bartender might then increase drink prices (i.e. increase the fed funds rate) to slow down the debauchery (i.e. irrational exuberance).

 Quantitative Easing:

QE is the other strategy that the bartender (Fed) deploys to get a dreadfully boring party (i.e. crashing economy) poppin’ again.

In this scenario, you can only order drinks (i.e. do business) with the drink servers (banks). During happy hour, the bartender notices that the servers (banks) aren’t hawking drinks (lending), they have empty trays. To get them up and active again, the bartender loads up the drink trays (i.e. Fed buys long term securities from the open market) but lowers the amount of alcohol in each cup (i.e. the fed’s asset purchases increase the banks’ reserves which results in lowers yields + more money in circulation).

This action results in the drink servers (banks) being flush with heavy trays of drinks (excess reserves) and incentivized to get back out to doing business (lending).

Ugh, yes – monetary policy is nuanced and there are some obvious holes in these oversimplified analogies but hopefully this is kinda helpful?!

A Recent History of Fed Interventions

While the Fed has deployed it’s influence on interest rates by increasing/decreasing the federal funds rate in the past, this tool had traditionally been reserved to rein in inflation and/or unemployment.

However, beginning with Alan Greenspan following the 1987 stock market crash, Federal Reserve chairs began lowering interest rates for one additional reason besides controlling inflation/unemployment: to proactively halt excessive stock market declines. This “Greenspan Put,” as it became known, acted as a form of insurance against market losses.

Since then, the Fed has intervened with lowering interest rates on a number of occasions to minimize stock market volatility/losses: the savings and loan crisis, the Gulf War, Mexican peso crisis, Asian financial crisis, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis, Y2K, dotcom bubble, and 2008 financial crisis.

Quantitative easing (QE), on the other hand, is a more recent monetary policy first deployed by Japan in 2001 to stymie the collapse of their financial market. In the US, QE was deployed following the 2008 crisis in three separate waves: in 2009, 2010, and 2012.

As mentioned earlier, QE is when central banks introduce new money into the money supply. In practice, this is done by central banks purchasing longer-term securities from the open market. This action drives up money supply and encourages institutions to keep lending (and investing!).

While it’s the Treasury that controls the printing of money, it’s the Federal Reserve that effectively decides how much money is created (in the form of actual paper money + credit).

What the Fed is doing now

Most recently, as global financial markets began nosediving due to Covid-19 lockdowns, the Federal Reserve stepped in with a broad array of actions to limit the damage.

First, they reduced the fed funds rate to ground zero (0.0%-0.25%) which brought the cost of borrowing to historic lows. They also pursued quantitative easing (QE) which included large purchases of U.S. government and mortgage-backed securities as well as lending to support households, employers, financial market participants, and state and local governments.

Through quantitative easing (QE), the Fed’s balance sheet has now swelled to nearly $9T (nearly double that following the ’08 financial crisis).

The Hangover

The combination of lower interest rates and $9T of QE is like a shot of adrenaline, or a Red Bull Vodka – it gives an immediate bump but a potentially painful come-down.

At wHealth Advisors, while we’re rationally optimistic that the long-term return potential in the stock market remains strong, there a number of hurdles facing the short/medium term:

  • Increasing National Deficit: The current national debt is approaching $30T. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act resulted in record corporate profits and strong stock market performance. However, the cuts essentially 1) borrowed economic growth from the future and 2) are expected to add $2-2.2T to the national deficit over the next six years. The 2017 tax cuts + QE response to Covid-19 have swelled the deficit and put the US on a “fiscally unsustainable” path, to quote the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
  • Tax Hikes Likely: There seems to be little interest in reducing federal expenditures. As such, without extreme austerity, the only other solution to combat rising deficits is increasing taxes (likely impacting both individual/corporate rates).
  • Slower Growth: Economists expect 2.3% GDP growth per year, on average, over the next 10 years, even after accounting for expectations of increased economic activity in the near term. This compares to historical average GDP growth of 3.1% per year since 1948.
  • Muted 10yr Equity Outlook: A lower economic outlook combined with record high equity valuations has many fund companies bracing investors for lower expected returns going forward. Vanguard forecasts US equities to have a 10yr annualized return between 2.0-4.0% and international equities to range between 5.1-7.1%.

 Final Thoughts:

The Fed’s QE actions, creating $9T more or less out of thin air, is somewhat uncharted territory. It will take time to fully understand the ramifications of this. For the time being, we’ve got inflation and a choppy stock market.

In the immediate future, the Fed has made clear that they are willing to increase unemployment to slow down inflation. To do this, the Fed is targeting a 2.25% fed funds rate and aiming to reduce their $9T balance sheet by $1T over next 12 months.

Over the short-medium term, continued stock market volatility will be inescapable. Actively reducing equity allocations in anticipation of, or in reaction to, fed funds rate increases is unlikely to lead to better investment outcomes.

Over the longer-term, investors who maintain a broadly diversified portfolio and use information in market prices to systematically focus on higher expected returns (i.e. exactly what we do for our clients at wHealth Advisors) should be better positioned for long-term investment success.

Resilient financial plans are designed with unpredictable, gloomy outlooks in mind. Please be in touch if you have any questions or concerns regarding your plan’s resiliency for the road ahead.

The SEC Finally Enforces ESG

SEC enforces ESG disclosure

With Earth Month upon us, we’re happy to report one small, incremental bit of progress in finance:

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will finally enforce ESG disclosure and begin requiring public companies to share their greenhouse gas pollution and climate risks.

Pressure Has Mounted – The SEC Finally Enforces ESG Disclosure

Back in a 2019 blog post we wrote about our key takeaways from three finance-focused climate events we attended.

The events had confirmed our understanding that ESG investing – that is, investing in funds that claim to prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors – was subjective and, at best, financial industry greenwashing.” 

Reason: Up until now, the SEC has not required public companies to disclose any ESG metrics. Without metrics, ESG fund managers were forced to make subjective judgement calls about their fund’s holdings (note: unless explicitly stated, ESG funds rarely divested from any specific companies or asset classes). Despite this reality, fund companies marketed these funds as fuzzy, feel-good environmentally-socially-conscious investment solutions.

At the time, the SEC defended it’s position by claiming that ESG metrics were nonmaterial to shareholders/investors.

Since then, and considering that there is now over $40 trillion in assets globally invested in ESG funds, there has been significant pushback from nearly all corners of the investment world. Individual and institutional investors, state pension funds, endowments, and even sovereign wealth funds have all pushed for more ESG disclosure.

Why Do Investors Want More ESG Disclosure?

One possible answer is, for the same reason they want good consistent financial disclosure: They want to be able to understand how companies work, so that they can buy the good ones and avoid the risky ones.

And most of the SEC’s proposal is about that sort of thing: Climate risks can affect a company’s business and financial results, so investors need to understand those risks to understand the business.

In other words, an about-face:

Emissions + climate risks = material information for shareholders/investors

Major Shift

This marks a major shift in how corporations must show they are dealing with climate change.

For the first time ever, the SEC finally enforces ESG and plans to require businesses to outline the risks a warming planet poses to their operations. In fact, some large companies will have to provide information on emissions they don’t make themselves, but come from other firms in their supply chain.

The rules will require companies to:

  • describe what climate-related risks they face and how they manage those risks
  • disclose, if applicable, a “transition plan” to adapt to a warming world, or whether they “use scenario analysis to assess the resilience of their business strategy to climate-related risks,”
  • disclose and quantify the use of carbon offsets
  • disclose how their financials are affected by climate risk

In essence, the SEC is proposing a complex accounting regime for ESG, a legally approved set of Generally Accepted Climate Principles, with its own body of technical standards and its own set of climate attestation professionals.

Takeaway:

While we’re optimistic that these new disclosure requirements will improve ESG investing, do note that it will take time. Implementation will take place between fiscal year 2023 and 2026 (depending on the size of company).

While increased disclosure of public companies is good, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest climate report suggested that ESG investing “does not yield meaningful social or environmental outcomes.”

Instead, the report cited, in order to avert the increasingly likely scenario of catastrophic global warming, the world needs stronger government policy and enhanced regulation.

Happy Earth Month. 

How will you do your small part to honor Mother Earth this year?

Let us know!

When Worlds Collide

Investors need to be prepared for when worlds collide. Collisions – whether they be on a macro level (like war, famine, geopolitical strife etc.) or on the micro level (a professional transition, the loss of a loved one, a disability etc.) – can disorient even the most emotionally stable.

In this piece, a contribution from our March 2022 newsletter, we share our thoughts on what we’re seeing from the 30,000ft, global viewpoint. We also narrow our scope and discuss what you – personal finance investors – can do in light of all the noise, volatility, and events that are beyond your control.

The Macro

Russia-Ukraine:

The events in Ukraine are heartbreaking. We’re certainly not qualified to speak about the political implications of this invasion, but anytime there is aggression and loss of life, it is a tragedy.

From a financial perspective, markets had been bracing for a possible Russian invasion for much of February. Leading up to the invasion there was increased market volatility and a drop in the major indexes.

Oil Ban:

Just yesterday, the Biden administration announced an executive order halting all imports of Russian oil.

Roughly 8% of US imports of crude oil and petroleum products came from Russia in 2021, representing just 1% of Russia’s total oil exports globally. However, some US allies have indicated they may follow our lead with similar embargos.

These oil bans will impact global oil supply and inevitably result in gas prices continuing their steady incline (which have already climbed more than 60% this year).

Macro Movers and Market Impact:

Between the growing Russia-Ukraine crisis, continued inflation, rising commodity/metal prices, and the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, it’s anyone’s guess just how much corporate profits (and your portfolios) will be impacted.

The image (below) shows how the market has fared during previous global events.

Our advice: Ignore the Macro

As we look ahead, from a personal finance standpoint, we encourage you to not react emotionally (i.e. buying/selling in a panic) based on macro events that are beyond your control. Reacting to events is, in essence, just another form of market timing.

If you flee the market after a major crisis, you are faced with yet another market timing dilemma: when to reenter. In many cases, the decision to reinvest comes after a rebound has already begun, resulting in missed opportunity (think back to March 2020).

Moving in and out of the market can also incur additional costs and have potential tax implications for investors.

The Micro

Instead, we encourage you to focus on the micro – that is, the levers that are within your control:

  • Saving at least 15% (ideally 20%) of income
  • Controlling your household expenses
  • Maximizing tax savings and tax-efficiency
  • Having a globally diversified portfolio for long-term resiliency

Parting Thoughts:

Let us all reflect on how much we do have during these times of crisis. Out of all the hands we could have been dealt, we got ours. We made it through a global pandemic, we have safety/security, and our physiological needs are met (i.e. clean air, food, water, shelter, clothing). Many of us are especially lucky and also have meaningful relationships, connection, and love with friends and family.

To quote Viktor Frankl:

“For the world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his best.”

Have gratitude for what you have, ignore what’s beyond your control, and give it your best.

Finances for Fathers: Episode 64 of the Dad.Work Podcast

Dennis McNamara had the opportunity to connect with Curt Storring, the host of the Dad.Work podcast, in a wide ranging conversation focused on finances for fathers.

Some highlights from the finances for fathers discussion:

  • The fundamentals of fiscal fitness and why fathers need to figure this stuff out
  • Finding a balance between time, money and health
  • The return on investment (ROI) of doing men’s work
  • Dennis’ quarantine struggles and doubling down on health protocols to come out the other side stronger
  • Being confident, living with intention and having a more deep and more engaged relationship with those around you
  • The importance of an emergency fund
  • And way more depth than you’d usually find in a conversation about finances for fathers!

Dennis’ Dad.Work Bio:

Dennis McNamara is a dad to a three year old, a husband to his college sweetheart, and a comprehensive financial planner at, and co-founder of, wHealth (pronounced “wealth”) Advisors in Red Bank, NJ.

After graduating university in 2011 Dennis was teetering on a mental and emotional breakdown. With $7,000 to his name, Dennis spent a year exchanging his physical labor for a roof over his head on permaculture farms in Portugal and Costa Rica. After learning more about himself through these experiences he dedicated himself to rigorously pursuing purposeful work instead of job titles.

Since then, he’s been the US Director of Business Development at a social enterprise firm, a financial analyst at the private wealth management arm of Goldman Sachs, and most recently – in 2019 – made the leap to establish his own financial planning firm – wHealth Advisors.

Dennis has been mentioned in Forbes, US News & World Report, and Financial Advisor Magazine. He holds the financial designations of Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC), Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF), and is a Certified Student Loan Professional (CSLP).

Outside of wHealth Advisors he is passionate about compounding healthy habits so that he can show up as the best version of himself – whether that be as a parent, a partner, or a professional.

You can follow along his Instagram @thewhealthadvisor or find more about the work he does with wHealth Advisors at whealthfa.com. There, you can also subscribe to his monthly newsletter which is as much about finances as it is about wellness, personal optimization, and taking meaningful steps to upgrading your life.

Streaming:

The podcast streams on Apple, Spotify, or directly from Dad.Work.

The 101 on I Bonds

Before diving into a 101 on I Bonds, let’s first acknowledge that they’re the most boring investment that we’re recommending to… just about everyone*. If inflation is something that’s top of mind, they may be a good addition to your portfolio. For more on our thoughts on inflation, see our piece from a few months back.

What are I bonds?

I Bonds are a type of U.S. savings bond designed to protect the value of your cash from a rise in inflation. They are meant to give investors a return + inflation protection on their purchasing power. An I bond earns interest monthly from the first day of the month in the issue date.

Interest is paid in two components: a fixed rate of return plus a semi-annual variable rate which fluctuates with inflation.

How is interest calculated?

Currently, I bonds provide an interest rate of 7.12%, and this rate is good through April 30, 2022. A portion of this rate is tied to inflation, so the rate adjusts every six months, on May 1 and November 1.

How do I bonds work?

When you purchase an I bond, you pay the full face value of the bond. Bonds can be purchased two ways: paper I Bond certificates or electronically registered I bonds through the TreasuryDirect.gov website.

I bonds earn interest each month, and the interest is compounded every six months. However, you don’t get access to the interest until you cash out the bond. Interest that you earn gets added to the value of the bond twice per year.

How much can I purchase?

Investors can buy up to $10,000 worth of I bonds annually through the TreasuryDirect website. In addition, you can purchase another $5,000 by applying your federal tax refund towards a paper certificate purchase. For instance, a family of four would be able to purchase $40,000 in I bonds annually via TreasuryDirect.gov, and up to an additional $5,000 (per SSN, per year) if they had a federal tax refund in at least that amount.

When do I bonds mature?

I bonds have a maturity of 30 years, so you can earn interest on them for 30 years. NOTE: You cannot cash out of your I bond during the first 12 months of ownership. If the bond is cashed out between years 1 and 5, the most recent three months’ worth of interest is forfeited.

Do I have to pay taxes on I bonds?

I bonds are exempt from both state and local tax, but you do have to pay federal tax on the interest. However, if used to pay for college, the interest is completely tax exempt. For reporting taxes, there are two options: report interest annually or at maturity when the bond is sold.

How do I cash in my I bond?

This will depend on whether you own a paper bond or an electronic bond:

  • Paper Bond
    • Bring physical bond and proof of identity to a bank or financial institution that will cash it in (recommendation: call in advance, not all institutions accept).
  • Electronic Bond
    • Can cash out directly through the TreasuryDirect website.

Should I bonds be a part of my portfolio?

Although purchase amounts are quite limited, there are a few advantages to I bonds that make them a consideration for any portfolio:

  • Inflation protection
  • Less volatile than equities
  • Essentially no default risk, they are backed by the US Treasury
  • Interest is exempt from state and local taxes
  • Interest is exempt from federal tax if bonds are used to pay for college

*Disclosure: Everyone’s situation is unique. Please speak with a financial professional before following any of this advice.

New Year’s Resolutions

For the 50% of your that feel like Michael Scott, this may not be for you.

However, If you’re one of 31% of people planning to make a New Year’s resolution this year, or one of the 19% that are still undecided, now is a great time to reflect on the previous 11 (almost 12) months and begin setting some intentions for the year ahead.

Some New Year’s Resolution stats:

The most popular resolutions for 2021 are exercising more and improving fitness (50% of participants), losing weight (48%), saving money (44%), and improving diet (39%).

  • Of those who make a New Year’s resolution, after 1 week 75% are still successful in keeping it.
    • After two weeks, the number drops to 71%.
    • After 1 month, the number drops again to 64%.
    • After 6 months, 46% of people who make a resolution are still successful in keeping it.
    • After 1 year, 35% kept all their resolutions, 49% kept some of their resolutions, and only 16% failed at keeping any of their resolutions.

So, looking out to 2022, what are the steps you can take to increase the likelihood of being part of the 35% cohort that keeps all of their resolutions?

How to make (and keep!) your New Year’s Resolution

A recent NYT article by Jen Miller provides some helpful guidance on this topic:

“Your goals should be smart — and SMART. That’s an acronym coined in the journal Management Review in 1981 for specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound. It may work for management, but it can also work in setting your resolutions, too.”

  • Your resolution should be absolutely clear. “Making a concrete goal is really important rather than just vaguely saying ‘I want to lose weight.’ You want to have a goal: How much weight do you want to lose and at what time interval?” said Katherine L. Milkman, an associate professor of operations information and decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “Five pounds in the next two months — that’s going to be more effective.”
  • This may seem obvious if your goal is a fitness or weight loss related one, but it’s also important if you’re trying to cut back on something, too. If, for example, you want to stop biting your nails, take pictures of your nails over time so you can track your progress in how those nails grow back out, said Jeffrey Gardere, a psychologist and professor at Touro College of Osteopathic Medicine. Logging progress into a journal or making notes on your phone or in an app designed to help you track behaviors can reinforce the progress, no matter what your resolution may be.
  • Achievable. This doesn’t mean that you can’t have big stretch goals. But trying to take too big a step too fast can leave you frustrated, or affect other areas of your life to the point that your resolution takes over your life — and both you and your friends and family flail. So, for example, resolving to save enough money to retire in five years when you’re 30 years old is probably not realistic, but saving an extra $100 a month may be. (And if that’s easy, you can slide that number up to an extra $200, $300 or $400 a month).
  • Relevant. Is this a goal that really matters to you, and are you making it for the right reasons? “If you do it out of the sense of self-hate or remorse or a strong passion in that moment, it doesn’t usually last long,” said Dr. Michael Bennett, a psychiatrist and co-author of two self-help books. “But if you build up a process where you’re thinking harder about what’s good for you, you’re changing the structure of your life, you’re bringing people into your life who will reinforce that resolution, then I think you have a fighting chance.”
  • Time-bound. Like “achievable,” the timeline toward reaching your goal should be realistic, too. That means giving yourself enough time to do it with lots of smaller intermediate goals set up along the way. “Focus on these small wins so you can make gradual progress,” Charles Duhigg, author of “The Power of Habit” and a former New York Times writer, said. “If you’re building a habit, you’re planning for the next decade, not the next couple of months.”

New Year’s resolutions not for you?

Consider setting some basic intentions.

11 ways to make the most of 2022 (written by Diego Perez, @yung_pueblo):

  1. let yourself change
  2. make rest a high priority
  3. say no without feeling bad
  4. stop jumping to conclusions
  5. do not rush important things
  6. build your own idea of success
  7. make more time for key friends
  8. appreciate the small steps forward
  9. stay aligned with your highest goals
  10. take the risk when your intuition says yes
  11. build with people who are open to growth

Godspeed and good luck.

End of Year Planning

Some end-of-year housekeeping and planning strategies to close out the year on a good note:

Review your portfolio:

  • with upcoming transitions in mind. Are allocation changes needed to begin preparing for an upcoming milestone (i.e. retirement) or transition (i.e. job change, relocation etc.)?
  • for (in)appropriate risk. Has your risk tolerance or risk capacity (i.e. how much risk you can take without interrupting other goals/priorities) changed? Can you now take on more/less risk?
  • for rebalancing opportunities. Is your portfolio properly allocated based on a target model? Or has your overall allocation drifted due to outsized gains/losses?
  • for gain/loss harvesting. If you invest in a taxable brokerage account, and depending on your tax bracket, there may be opportunities to realize additional capital gains (while in a lower tax) bracket or offset capital gains with losses.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMD)

  • What they are: The minimum amount that must be withdrawn from pre-tax retirement accounts annually once reaching age 72. This does not apply to post-tax Roth IRAs.
  • Inherited IRAs: Have their own rules.
  • Deadline: All RMDs must be taken by December 31st.

Contribute to a Roth or Traditional IRA

  • Roth IRAs: Contributions grow tax-free and qualified distributions come out tax free. Income limitations apply.
  • Traditional IRA: Contributions may be fully, partially, or non-deductible, depending on your income and circumstances.
  • Annual contribution limit (per person): For 2020, 2021, and 2022 is $6,000, or $7,000 if you’re age 50 or older. This limit applies to all IRAs. Example: An individual could fund a Roth IRA with $6k, or fund a traditional IRA with $6k, or fund each with $3k. You (or your spouse) must have taxable income in order to make a contribution.
  • Deadline: You can make 2021 IRA contributions until April 15, 2022.
  • Backdoor Roth: Depending on your circumstances, and for those who exceed the contribution/deduction income limits, you may be eligible to make a “backdoor” Roth contribution. Read more about it here and be sure to do it under the guidance of your financial planner and/or tax advisor.
  • Roth Conversions: If you are currently in a low tax bracket and expect your tax bracket to increase in future years, you may consider converting some pre-tax funds to your post-tax Roth. Essentially, paying taxes now so that your retirement funds can grow tax-free into the future. Deadline: 12/31/2021.

Charitable Donations

  • Deadline: All 2021 cash/non-cash donations must be completed by December 31st.
  • Deduction: Those that do not itemize their taxes can still deduct donations: up to $300 for single filers and $600 for joint filers.
  • Donor Advised Funds: Gifting appreciated stock to a Donor Advised Fund avoids recognizing capital gains and potentially pre-funds future year gifting.
  • QCDs: If over age 70.5, you can avoid recognizing IRA RMD income by directing some/all of your distribution to go directly to charity via a Qualified Charitable Distribution.

All advice listed here is for informational purposes. Please consult your financial planner or tax advisor before implementing.

The Role of Alternative Investments in Your Portfolio

For decades, pundits have taken a stab at writing the obituary for the traditional 60/40 portfolio (i.e. 60% stocks/40% bonds).

At first glance, this seems laughable. Over the last 90 years, a traditional 60/40 portfolio returned over 8% per year – like the S&P 500 which returned 9.5% over that period – but… with 40% less volatility!

However, these days, when accounting for historically low interest rates and rising inflation (which may or may not be transitory), the 60/40 bears may have their strongest case in recent memory.

This then begs the question: what now?

For a variety of reasons, there is still plenty of merit to 60/40 portfolios. However, we do appreciate the potential of certain investments to increase portfolio diversification. For investment opportunities beyond that of traditional stocks and bonds, we classify these in the portfolio as Alternative Investments (or, alts).

What are alternative investments?

Alts are essentially a catchall for any investment besides stocks, bonds, and cash (or cash equivalents). They provide an opportunity to gain exposure to areas not traditionally captured in a stock/bond portfolio that may or may not offer above market returns. Some of the more common types of alternative investments include:

  • Real Estate – crowdsourced or private commercial/residential property ownership, private/public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
  • Commodities – such as crude oil, corn, soy, wheat, and coffee
  • Precious metals – such as gold, silver, and lithium
  • Cryptocurrency – purchasing coins, NFTs, or investing in public companies at the fore of crypto/blockchain/web3
  • Private Equity – locking up funds with a private equity firm to invest in non-public, private companies often via leveraged buyouts and/or venture capital
  • Collectibles – tangible assets such as art, fine wine, and vehicles

What are the benefits of alternative investments?

  • Diversification. This is the primary benefit. Alternative investments are typically a counterweight to conventional stock/bond assets and may perform well even if stock/bond returns are poor due to low correlations.
  • May have greater upside. Alternative investments, often due to their concentrated positions, can potentially offer outsized returns compared to traditional mutual fund/ETF investments.
  • Expertise can be an edge. An example of this would be an experienced real estate fix-and-flipper who can spot an opportunity and has the team/know-how to carry out the vision. Another example might be an art collector that knows how to spot undervalued works of art. All this to say, unique skills/interests in niche areas can set you apart.

What are the drawback of alternative investments?

  • Illiquidity. Many alternative investments may be illiquid and difficult to exit. In the case of most non-tradable private REITs, your investment might be tied up for 7+ years before you can access the funds.
  • Lack of regulation. Reporting requirements for many alternative investments are minimal compared to those of public companies in the stock market. This can create difficulty when valuing the alt’s underlying assets, which can make pricing and price transparency less straightforward.
  • Investment platforms can fail. Many online platforms for alternative investing are start-ups that may or may not succeed. You need to understand how your funds will be handled should the company fail or be acquired.
  • Investment minimums may apply. High investments minimums are common and may make certain alts impractical/inaccessible for smaller investors.
  • High fees. Alternatives can have many fees that are unique to the investment. Private equity typically charges large asset management fees. Real estate can have many unplanned repair/maintenance/legal expenses. Wine collecting through Vinovest charges 2.5%-2.85% for climate-controlled and insured wine storage! Compare those fees to traditional index funds which have small expense ratios, no purchase fees, no redemption fees, and no 12b-1 fees.
  • Complexity. Alternative investments are often complex instruments and may require a higher level of due diligence. If you are considering alternative investments, you also want to be sure that you research and understand the potential tax implications associated with them.

Takeaway

Ultimately, investors need to be aware of both the upside and downside potential of any investment. The suitability of any given alternative investment should be considered against an individual investor’s:

  1. time horizon
  2. appetite for risk
  3. ability/capacity to take on outsized risk, and
  4. any unique skills/interests that strengthen the odds of making a profitable investment.

 Federal Tax Proposal – A Summary

TAX

The Biden administration recently announced a number of tax proposals to fund new government investments. The current version may not be the final form, but many of its features are likely to become law. Below is a summary of what is most likely to impact families.

Income Tax Rates

  • Increase in the marginal tax rate: The top marginal tax rate would increase from 37% to 39.6% for income greater than $400,000 if you file as single and $450,000 if filed as married filing jointly (MFJ). These changes would go into effect for the 2022 tax year.

 

  • Increase in the top long-term capital gains rate: The highest marginal long-term capital gains rate would increase from 20% to 25% for incomes higher than $400,000 (single) or $450,000 (married filing jointly). The change in rate to 25% would be effective as of September 13, 2021 unless a sale was already under contract prior to that date.

 

  • S Corporations: Business profits from S corporations will be subject to a 3.8% surtax for taxpayers with Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) above $400,000 (single) and $500,000 (MFJ).

 

  • Section 199A QBI Deduction: To be phased out for those earning over $400,000 (single) or $500,000 (MFJ).

 

  • Additional 3% surtax on ultra-high income: An additional flat tax of 3% would be applied on any MAGI above $2,500,000 for individuals filing as married filing separately or above $5,000,000 for MFJ or single.

Retirement Strategies and Plans

  • Roth conversions will no longer be allowed for high income individuals:
    • New rules would prohibit all Roth conversions for taxpayers in the highest ordinary income tax bracket (39.6%) beginning January 1, 2032.
    • Roth conversions of after-tax funds will be prohibited for ALL taxpayers beginning January 1, 2022. This would eliminate backdoor Roth as a planning strategy.

 

  • Restricts contributions to IRAs or Roth IRAs for high net worth individuals if:
    • Taxable income is greater than $400,000 (single) or $450,000 (MFJ) AND the total value of IRA and defined contribution plans exceed $10,000,000.
    • The limitation does not apply to contributions of employer plans such as a 401(k), SEP IRA, or pension plan.

 

  • Change in Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) for individuals whose aggregate retirement account size exceeds $10,000,000:
    • Imposes RMDs on large retirement account balances if:
      • Taxable income is greater than $400,000 (single) or $450,000 (MFJ), AND
      • The total value of IRA and defined contribution plans exceed $10,000,000

 

  • If combined balance is between $10,000,000 and $20,000,000, the owner must distribute 50% of the amount of the account balances in excess of $10,000,000.
  • If the balance is greater than $20,000,000, the RMD would be 100% in excess of $20,000,000, plus 50% of any amount over $10,000,000.

Additional Changes

  • Wash Sale rule: This will be expanded to include cryptocurrency and other digital assets, commodities, and foreign currencies.

 

  • Estate Tax Exemption would be reduced: Would revert back to $5,850,000 per person and $11,700,000 per couple. This was scheduled to happen in 2026, but under the new proposal, it would get accelerated to 2022.

 

  • Increased child tax credit and monthly advance payment extended until 2025: Monthly advance payments of $250 per qualifying child aged 6-17 and $300 per child below the age of 6 would continue.

 

  • Assets held within grantor trusts may become part of taxable estate: This would potentially eliminate the benefit of certain estate planning techniques, namely Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs).

S&P Gains 100% from March 2020 Low: Now what?

S&P 500 marks 100% gain since March 2020

After hitting “rock bottom” following global shutdowns related to the coronavirus in March 2020, the S&P 500 has roared ever since delivering a 100% return. You read that right: 100%.

SIDEBAR: Someone out there is highlighting this past 18 month window in their investing masterclass, illustrating that in times of financial crisis, the best action for your portfolio is inaction. Don’t sell. Be patient. Ride it out. But we digress…

What now?

After living through the shortest bear market in history, we’re now witnessing company valuations being pushed to new heights only surpassed by the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. While this may sound unsettling, also consider that with interest rates so low, it would be equally worrying if equities weren’t expensive (reason: low interest rate yields push investors to equities).

So, at this juncture and with cash to invest, should you a) lean towards low interest fixed income that’s not (or barely) keeping up with inflation, or b) buy potentially overvalued equities? Pick your poison.

From our vantage point, choosing low interest debt or expensive equities is not an either/or proposition – everything comes back to diversification. Instead of chasing returns, we prefer the approach of aligning portfolio decisions to your unique life: your upcoming cash needs (and/or life transitions), your tax bracket, and your tolerance + ability to take risk.

While we’re not ones for reading the tea leaves, we did appreciate reviewing the latest JP Morgan Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. In it, they had a stark quote that stuck out:

“The price for dealing with the pandemic today comes at the cost of tomorrow’s returns in many conventional asset markets.”

Not exactly a glass half-full outlook for the road ahead.

The biggest challenges outlined by the report included:

  • Whether governments/business can rise to the climate challenge
  • Increased sovereign debt balances and an expectation for fiscal stimulus to continue
  • Stagnating globalization, companies shortening their supply chains
  • Era of US “exceptionalism” possibly coming to an end, leading to a weaker dollar

While we certainly believe that all challenges present opportunities, we feel equally strong that investors should prepare for muted annual returns over the next decade. We touched on this topic not long ago.

According to the same JP Morgan LTCMA report, over the next 10-15 years, inflation is anticipated to flatten at an overall rate of 2.0%. This is a tough pill to swallow when the same report projects compound return rates for the same period to be 1.10% for cash, 1.50% for intermediate Treasuries, and 2.50% for US investment grade corporate bonds.

For equities, the LTCMA report outlined the following predictions for the next 10-15 year investment time horizon:

  • 4.10% for US Large Cap
  • 4.60% for US Small Cap
  • 6.20% for US Value
  • 6.50% for US REITS
  • 5.20% for Euro equities
  • 6.10% for UK equities
  • 5.10% for Japanese equities
  • 6.80% for emerging market equity

Compare these expected returns to the 10% average annual return that the stock market has delivered over the last century. Not ideal.

Instead of guessing which asset class will perform best, or searching for the next Amazon to invest in, legendary investor and founder of Vanguard, John Bogle (who’s 3-fund “boring” portfolio outperformed the largest endowments in 2020, yet again), said it best:

“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.”

As evidence-based investors, we wholeheartedly agree with this approach.

Beware of Financial Scams

Scam Alert

A personal contact shared a story with us regarding their friend who recently fell victim to an online gift card scam.

The friend received an email from “Target” and was prompted to provide certain information to “verify their gift cards.” Unfortunately, the friend fell for the scam and within a few days had money withdrawn directly from their bank account. The impacted individual is now in the process of working with their bank to recover the stolen funds.

The State of Fraud

Scamming shows no signs of letting up. In its most recent report from the Internet Crime Complaint Center, the FBI saw the largest number of complaints, and the highest dollar losses, since the center was established 20 years ago. According to the FBI, the costliest scams involved business email compromise, romance or confidence fraud, and mimicking the account of a person or vendor known to the victim to gather personal or financial information.

How to avoid

  1. Beware of suspicious email address and fake invoices/attachments: Fraudsters are masters of deception. It’s not uncommon for them to send emails from addresses that might look familiar to you but which contain one spelling difference, or end in .net instead of .com. Never open links or attachments from email addresses that are unfamiliar. Additionally, if you receive a link or attachment that you weren’t expecting from what appears to be recognizable/legitimate email address, it never hurts to send a quick call or text to the sender to confirm.
  2. Ignore scammers pretending to be from the government: Most of us have probably received one of these phone calls. Someone reaches out on a phone call claiming to be from the IRS. In some cases, most recently, the caller will claim you are eligible for an “additional stimulus check.” In others, they’ll say you owe money and will warn that non-payment will result in legal recourse and penalties. Take note: the IRS will never make first contact via a phone call or request payment details for money-owed over the phone. If you receive a call, simply hang up the phone. The same goes for calls from the Social Security Administration and other government organizations.
  3. Be aware of the Social Security scam: Also done via phone call, the caller says your Social Security number has been linked to a crime involving drugs and/or sending money out of the country illegally. They inform you that your Social Security number is blocked and that by simply confirming your SSN and paying a small fee, it can be reactivated. Again: Hang up! The Social Security Administration will never call you on the phone and ask for your Social Security number.
  4. Scammers will tell you how to pay: All successful scams entail coercing the victim to part with sensitive information or to pay the scammer. Scammers may insist that you pay by sending money through a money transfer company. Others may suggest putting money on a gift card and then giving them the number on the back. Some will send you a check (that will later turn out to be fake), tell you to deposit it, and then send them money.
  5. Don’t fall for online pop-up warnings: Tech support scammers may try to lure you with a pop-up window that appears on your computer screen. It might look like an error message from your operating system or antivirus software. It may also use logos from trusted companies or websites. The message in the window warns of a security issue on your computer and directs you to call a phone number to get help. Simply ignore. If you are unsure of whether the message was legitimate, you can use your antivirus software to run a scan or contact the soliciting organization directly.

What to do if you are scammed

Anyone can fall victim to these scams. If you have paid someone, call your bank, money transfer app, or credit card company and see if they can reverse the charges. The Federal Reserve Board notes that if you report the fraud within two business days, liability is limited to $50. If you report it after that, you could face liability of up to $500, and if you report it after the 60-day window, subsequent fraudulent charges can wipe out your account entirely.

Final thoughts

Whether online or via phone, stay vigilant. Avoid clicking on suspicious links, and never give out personal information to a stranger over the phone. For online accounts, steer away from using short passwords which can be easily hacked by password cracker software. Instead, use strong passwords that are at least 12 digits long and contain numbers, letters, special characters, and a mix of lowercase and uppercase letters.

If you know someone who has been impacted, Identitytheft.gov is a great resource for mapping out a recovery plan.